Friday, November 7, 2014

How To Read the Voynich Manuscript

In case you aren't familiar with it the Voynich Manuscript (pictured at left) is currently one of the bigger linguistic mysteries out there .  It is a set of some 240 hand-illuminated pages, bound in codex form, making what appears to be a reference work on such topics as herbalism, biology, and astronomy.  Many of the illustrations are of plants and flowers that do not actually exist or cannot be precisely identified.  Most puzzling is the text, which is written in an unknown and undecipherable script that bears no relation to any known language or script.  You can see high-quality scans of the book here, courtesy of the Yale Library.

It is believed that the manuscript is a pharmacopoiea, as it bears some similarities to other such works.  However, much of it is puzzling, and incomprehensible.  Some scholars have proposed the manuscript to be a fake, one of a number of herbals made in the Middle Ages by alchemists and charlatans to impress simple people with the possessor's supposed knowledge.  The text is gibberish, mere squiggles on a page, meant to look like writing and yet containing no message.  That's one proposal.

Yet, the script looks intentional.  The same letters are repeated, and even specific ligatures are discernible.  The letters are repeated in such a way that shows consistency, as though the author were writing in an actual script, and not merely scribbling.

There are all kinds of hypothesis about how and why the manuscript was authored.  The most plausible is probably that the text is an invented script meant to write an East Asian tonal language.  Other theories are that it is a secret script or language invented by the author to hide his writing, or that the script is a code, containing information in some secondary feature of the words.

Those are the best theories.

But I want to propose a crazy theory, and a way to test it.

Monday, September 1, 2014

And Ye Shall Likewise

In days past and in lands forgotten - certainly far before either you or I were born - there in that far-away land stood a great kingdom.  And that kingdom was ruled, of course, by the King, a man of great honor and of great love for his people.  This King was a wise monarch, who dealt with his subjects fairly; and so there was peace in the land, prosperity in the markets, and the people there felt safe to leave their doors unlocked at night.

While the castle slept, the King would disguise himself as a pauper and sneak through passages unknown to his guards to the town beyond the castle walls.  He would take with him a wallet of gold coins out of his treasury, and so equipped he would wander the streets of his capital looking for those in need so that, in secret, he might give them comfort.  Orphans, widows, beggars; he would visit each in turn, under cover of night, and when he left they would discover the King's gift.

And it happened one night, as the King was about this business, that his attendants in court learned of their King's absence.  They learned that the King had left the castle, and left it empty, and that now it was theirs.  They learned that the King was outside of its walls and unable to stop them, unable to enforce his reign.  They learned that they could do whatever they wanted.

Now they could be kings and queens.

Monday, June 30, 2014

The Extent to Which I Could Change My Mind

It pays sometimes to ask yourself the question, what would change my mind?  To what extent could my mind be changed?  What alternatives would I consider?

Asking this kind of question is an important part of basic mental hygiene.  After all, if you never consider the possibility of being wrong, then for all you know you are wrong.  If you never consider the possibility of truth in other systems, then for all you know they are true.

This is a personal post, where I'm going to talk about my religious beliefs.  That's not what I normally do on this blog, but it's my blog and I'll do what I want.  I should mention, this post was inspired in part by a good friend of mine, Nathaniel Givens, in his post here on Times and Seasons.

Monday, June 23, 2014

On the Berenstein Bears Switcheroo

Two years ago, I wrote a post about one of the icons of my childhood, the Berenstein Bears.  Except, as I learned, they aren't called the Berenstein Bears.  As it turns out, they're the Berenstain Bears.

BerenstAin.  With an "A".

My mind was blown.  I had very distinct memories of the bears.  I grew up reading their books and watching them on TV in school, and remember how it used to be spelled.  I tried to figure out when the name had changed.

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Time Travel Doesn't Work That Way

Tales of characters finding themselves hundreds of years in the past or the future are as old as the human imagination.  In recent years, since the codification of special relativity, this idea has taken a slightly more scientific bent, time travel now being the domain of crazed scientists, as opposed to fairy tricksters.

There are basically two ways to talk about time travel.  One is the literary, magical kind of time travel in stories like Rip Van Winkle, Harry Potter, Back to the Future, or Terminator; this is how time travel is almost always treated in popular culture.  The other is the scientific, relativistic approach, found in stories such as... well, none of them that I know of, because it's too difficult for liberal arts majors to understand, and doesn't make for as fun of a story.

compliments SMBC
I don't necessarily have a problem with the convention of literary time travel.  I mean, it's a story.  Even though I've written before about how some of the ideas that appear in fictional time travel don't make sense, such as changing the past or alternative time lines, the point of a story is to entertain, and not necessarily educate about the forefront of theoretical physics.  Plus, I frequently read stories about dragons and wizards and magic swords.

Nevertheless, in this post I want to offer an alternative explanation, of how time travel would work physically within the framework of General Relativity.

Special Relativity came first, as a theory that united space and time in to a single 4-dimensional entity called spacetime.  The "special" here means that it was later realized to be a special case of a more general theory -- the General Theory of Relativity.   More on that later.  The "relativity" is the more intriguing part.  This name was given to the theory because of how it treated distances in space and intervals in time.  Namely, that they could be mixed together, depending on the speed of the observer.  A scientist riding a spaceship and a scientist standing on an asteroid will get two different measurements of the length of the asteroid.  If the scientist on the asteroid drops a rock, he and the spaceship scientist will measure two different amounts of time it takes the rock to fall.

The lynch pin in Special Relativity is the experimental observation that the speed of light is independent of how fast you move relative to the light source.  What does this mean?

Suppose you're in a giant warehouse.  You're standing still.  In the center of the warehouse is one of those machines that shoots tennis balls.  Using some sort of experimental apparatus, you can measure the speed of the tennis balls.  Say you measure them to have a speed of 20 mph.  Then you start walking towards the machine, at a speed of 2mph.  Your measurement apparatus is not very smart, and doesn't know that you're moving.  In fact, as far as it can tell, all that happened is the tennis balls sped up; now instead of moving at 20 mph, they move at 20 + 2 = 22 mph.  By moving towards something, speeds add!  If you walked away from the  machine at the same speed, then your apparatus would measure 20 - 2 = 18 mph.  The speeds subtract!  This makes sense, intuitively.  When you're driving, the passing cars seem to move a lot faster than the trees on the side of the road.  The important key here is, the speed you measure for the objects depends upon your own speed.

This is called the principle of Galilean Relativity, after Galileo Galilei.  The speeds of objects add relative to other objects.

Light does not work that way.

In the center of the warehouse, there is also a light bulb.  Using a different apparatus, you can measure the speed of light.  Standing still, you measure the speed of light to be 670,616,629 mph.  Light moves pretty fast, as it happens.  You start running at the light bulb, but you still measure the speed to be 670,6616,629 mph.  Maybe you're not running fast enough for the apparatus to notice the change?  So you get in a car and rev the engine up to 200 mph at the light bulb, but still measure 670,616,629 mph.  You get on a high speed, magnetically-hovering bullet train and travel 10,000 mph toward the light bulb, and you still measure 670,616,629 mph.  It never goes up.  Dejected, you turn the train around, and to your continued frustration, even when going 10,000 mph the other way the speed of light from the light bulb is still 670,616,629 mph.

The speed you measure for light does not depend upon your own speed.

When scientists first discovered this, there was a lot of debate trying to figure it out.  A lot of it had to do with "ether", a fictitious fluid through which photons were supposed to move, and a dragging of the ether relative to moving bodies that affected the speed of the interior light beams.  It was confusing stuff.  Then Albert Einstein had an insight.  At first glance, if you didn't know it, it was one of the most ridiculous things you could propose, but it turned out to be real genius.

Einstein decided that the speed of light wasn't the speed of an actual object, but some kind of fundamental constant that was always the same in every frame of reference.  He called this constant c, the speed of light.  But since speed has units of distance per time, this gave c as a fundamental scaling factor between distances and time intervals.  The result was a unification of the two in to a single geometric entity called spacetime.

It was important that spacetime was geometric.  This meant that the same concepts that are normally used in discussion of space -- such as distances, directions, axes, speeds -- could be applied at a higher level to talk about movement in this new four dimensional spacetime.  Objects were given what is called a 4-velocity, measuring their rate of movement in spacetime.  The 4-velocity of every object (at least all those you've ever seen) has a constant magnitude of c.  Now, mind you, that's the 4-velocity, not the normal velocity.  When you see an object "standing still", it is actually moving forward in time at the speed of light.  When the object "speeds up" or "slows down" (from  3D point of view), it is actually only changing direction in spacetime; now it is moving partially forward in time and partially forward in space.

Make sure to keep these words straight: "speed" is an object's rate of movement in space; "velocity" is an object's rate of movement and the direction of its movement; "four-speed" is an object's rate of movement in spacetime, and is always c; "four-velocity" is an object's movement and the direction of its movement in space and in time; the magnitude of the four-velocity is the four-speed.

The car turns from N to NW.
It's speed stays the same,
but its velocity changes direction
Consider a car driving North at 100 mph.  It then comes to a bend at the road, where the road now moves true North-West, exactly midway between North and West.  The driver, looking at the speedometer, measures his speed to still be 100 mph.  However, the car is not moving North as quickly as it once was, as part of its movement is now directed to the West; its speed to the North is in fact now only 70 mph (approximately).  Contrariwise, the car used to not be moving Westward at all; but, since changing direction, the car is now moving to the West with a definite speed.

This is a similar situation to an object in spacetime.  When it is "stationary", the direction of its movement is strictly temporal, with four-speed c; just like the car going North at 100 mph, which we do not perceive as moving West.  When the object accelerates in space, it actually only changes direction in spacetime, keeping the same four-speed of c; much like our driver turning the car to go partially West, but still moving 100 mph.

You can see how this would put limits on the spatial velocity of objects.  Because the four-speeds of objects in spacetime are always c, and because "acceleration" only changes direction in spacetime, it means the largest speed that you could ever give to a real object is c.  Nothing can move faster than the speed of light.

The car is moving West a quickly as it can
Think of the car now turning to point true West, but still moving 100 mph.  There is no amount of turning that can make the driver appear to be moving faster westward; the only option would be to increase the speed of the car from 100 mph to say 200 mph.  It's the same thing in spacetime; once you're moving with speed c, no amount of turning (i.e. spatial acceleration) can increase your four-speed; you'd need to increase your 4-velocity itself, and that is impossible.

Now, this is not a true analogy.  If it were, then scientists would have discovered spacetime a long time ago.  The difference is a geometric one, because the geometry of spacetime is not quite the same as the geometry of space.  In our car example, it is possible to turn the car so that it only moves West, and not North.  In spacetime, it is not possible to turn an object so that it only moves in space and not in time.

To see this, remember that nothing moves faster than light.  But light definitely has spatial movement; otherwise, the universe would be pitch black.  Light also definitely moves forward in time; otherwise, lightbulbs wouldn't do anything and there'd be no way to light up a dark room.

This then suggests a method of visualizing spacetime.  We make the following diagram, and draw what is called a light cone.  A point on this diagram is called an "event"; just as normal events like birthday parties or weddings have locations and times, so too do spacetime events.  These tell you when and where.  At the center of the diagram, where the time and space axes cross, we are going to have a physicist stand.  The physicist has a stop watch and a lightbulb.  At the same time he hits the stopwatch and turns on the lightbulb, and watches as light shoots out from the bulb.  It moves with speed c, and gets farther away from the physicist with each passing second.  The lines that light follows in the spacetime diagram make the light cone.
How else would you know he's a physicist,
without mad scientist hair and a lab coat?
Notice that the light beams move at the speed of light, so that c = ∆x/∆t, or ∆x = c∆t, at all points in the light's trajectory.  If we consider the length ∆s of the hypotenuse of the triangle made by light's movement, based on the Pythagorean Theorem, we might be tempted to say
$$\Delta s^2 = \Delta x^2 + c^2\Delta t^2.$$
However, what makes spacetime different from normal geometry is that the time coordinate has a negative sign, meaning the Pythagorean Theorem in spacetime looks like this
$$\Delta s^2 = \Delta x^2 - c^2\Delta t^2.$$
The negative sign is important, and is what gives spacetime most of its interesting properties.

If you are standing still, then the path you follow in spacetime is a straight line parallel to the time axis; i.e., you only move forward in time.  Your four-velocity points straight up.  If you begin walking, then you rotate your four-velocity, so that it points more along the x axis [see note below about reference frames].  Moving faster, you go a larger distance in a similar amount of time, and so your four-velocity points further along the x axis.  The limit is when you are moving with a speed of c; this is as fast as you can ever go, but here we see your four-velocity only makes a 45 degree angle with the space and time axes.

This puts limits not only on our ability of spatial movement, but also on our ability to exploit the connection between space and time.  If time is just a direction, after all, why not just walk to the past, or to the future, as surely as we walk North or West?

As  you can see in the diagram, the process of, say, instantaneous teleportation is available; just move only along the x axis as far as you like without moving on the t axis.  However, doing that would put you outside of the light cone, which requires moving faster than the speed of light, which is impossible.

Also, the diagram makes the process of time travel available.  All it requires is "turning around" completely in spacetime, so that your four-velocity points in the opposite direction.  However, this is also impossible, for at some point in the process of turning around, you must rotate your four-velocity through 45 degrees, which makes your speed faster than light, and is thus forbidden.  So even though special relativity illustrates how time travel would work, special relativity also forbids time travel to work.

The problem is that our four-velocity has to stay inside of the light cone.  This is a fundamental fact of nature; we can never move outside of a light cone.  A lesser man would give up at this point, but not us.  Rather than admit defeat, we will simply change the light cones, and we will do this with general relativity.

In special relativity, the path we would like to follow requires us to leave the light cones.

 But what if we just tipped them all over, in just such a way that our backwards-in-time path was always inside the cones?

General relativity introduces the possibility of spacetime curvature; most importantly, the possibility of space-time mixing.  When space and time are mixed in very extreme cases, a spatial direction like North becomes equivalent to a time direction; by walking North, you actually move forward or backward in time.

These sorts of spacetimes are easy to construct, mathematically.  Just add a term that mixes space and time in to the equations in general relativity.  Physically, however, these spacetimes are impossible to construct.

Of the proposal for time travel metrics, most of them succumb to the principle of garbage in/garbage out.  The "garbage out" in this case would be the possibility of time travel to the past.  The "garbage in" is the distribution of mass that you'd have to make in order to curve space in the right way.

For instance, the simplest metric allowing for time travel is van Stockum space, which was shown by Frank Tipler to allow for time travel.  However, van Stockum space describes an infinitely long rotating cylinder.  It is impossible to construct an infinitely long cylinder (obviously).

Another example are wormholes, connecting two temporally separated regions of spacetime.  These require negative mass, and there does not exist negative mass.

The Kerr spacetime, which describes space in the vicinity of a rotating massive object, allows for time travel.  However, time travel only occurs for the blackhole case, and only inside of the event horizon; a time traveler from the future could never reach the outside world and have any impact on the past.  These are just a few examples, but every other proposal has failed on similar grounds.

Time travel to the past, so far as well know, is physically prohibited.  Nonetheless, Einstein's relativity explains to us how it would work if there were such a thing.  Let us point out some facets.

Firstly, space and time are united in to a single geometric entity called spacetime.  While the geometry of spacetime bears subtle differences to the geometry of space, it is still a geometric entity.

A reasonable way to visualize world lines
Imagine, if you like, a tall transparent rectangle sitting on a table on your desk, and imagine embedded in this rectangle little lines of red, blue, or green, running from top to bottom in the rectangle, and sometimes moving laterally from side to side.  These lines are like the positions of objects inside of the universe.  The process of experiencing time is the process of running your finger from the bottom of the rectangle to the top.   The technical word for them, in terms of a spacetime diagram, is world lines.

The disturbing part of this picture is that the top of the rectangle is always there.  Even when your finger is half-way to the top, the positions of all the world lines are already there.  They don't need you to catch up to exist.  The future is written, even if we'll never know what it is until we get there.

If you're having trouble understanding why this implies world lines are fixed, hold a pen in your hand.  Look at the bottom of the pen.  Is the top of the pen still there?  It's the same thing here, but now "the top" is "the future".  You may say that you can change the top of the pen, maybe by squeezing the bottom, but when you change it, you are changing it in time.  If you think maybe the world lines might change, then keep in mind, time is a direction in this picture; the world lines definitely do change in that direction, which is moving from the bottom to the top of the rectangle.  There is no other "outside time" for them to change with respect to.

This is disturbing to humans because we like to imagine ourselves as having free wills (and are we free to imagine otherwise?), but there simply isn't any other way to look at things once you've acknowledged spacetime as valid... and there isn't really any way to understand the universe without spacetime being valid.

You shouldn't think of this view as denying you anything, like freewill or boundless possibilities.  If you really had them at all, then they must be compatible with this view; if they aren't, then you never had them to begin with, so you really haven't lost anything.  I'm not saying there isn't freewill; I'm saying if there is, then it's compatible with this view.

The green world line goes back in time
Any affect it has on the other lines, it had before it 'left' 
Not only is the future written.  The past is written as well.  This is where the physical picture of time travel contradicts that of contemporary popular culture most strongly.  Anyone traveling to the past must do so within spacetime - that is, within the rectangle of our visualization.  When they get there, they find themselves not in some new spacetime, but in the exact same spacetime, but now at a point farther to the bottom of the time axis.  Once more, the future is written; the world lines at the top of the rectangle go where they go, and we're just tracing them.  This means that, while we can certainly impact the past, we cannot alter the past.  Whatever a time traveler does in the past, the future must already know that he did it.  Step on all the butterflies you want; you already know how bad the future will be.

To answer all possible time travel paradoxes, again, turn to our visualization of the transparent rectangle with the world lines embedded as colored lines inside of it.  Lines can only exist that run from the bottom to the top of the cylinder (or, perhaps, make closed loops within it).  Lines that do are possible.  Lines that don't are impossible.  This resolves nearly every possible paradox.

Another important point to note is that the act of traveling backwards in time is not an "instantaneous" thing.  What would that even mean, anyway?  Rather, traveling backward in time is literally traveling, backward in time.  You have to rotate your four-velocity to point backward, and then move in spacetime.

This also does not back-trace your previous world line, putting you as yourself in high school.  Technically, from an outside perspective (the world lines are embedded in a rectangle sitting on your desk), you still are yourself in high school; if you're not experiencing yourself in high school right now, then blame entropy.

Rather, moving backwards in time traces a new world line that moves from top-to-bottom, and then at some point turns around and moves bottom-to-top again.  During this top-to-bottom process, it is possible to interact with other objects.  Someone traveling backwards in time is perfectly visible to anyone around them.  As you travel back in time, you will see a second copy of yourself walking backward towards you and finally merging with you.  This occurs when you switch from backward to forward traveling.  You will then see a second copy of yourself split off from you.  That copy will be doing all the things you did while time traveling, only in reverse order.

It would probably be a pretty horrifying experience, really.

How long is Red's beard when Blue enters?
One fortunate fact is that you cannot move backwards in time without also moving in some direction.  This is from the frame dragging effect mentioned earlier.  If it were otherwise (if you could travel backwards in time and stand still) then your conscious mind at two separate ages -- perhaps separated by years of experienced time -- would exist at the exact same time and in a brain in the exact same location.  Whose thoughts would you think?  If you grew a beard in your time traveling backwards, then how long would your beard appear to a non-backwards-traveling observer in the same room?  As long as when you left, or as long as when you arrive?  Or somewhere in between?  Fortunately, it is only possible to rotate four-velocities to point backwards by moving through a frame dragging spacetime, so these sorts of considerations are mostly meaningless.

This sort of thinking though -- world lines and four-velocities -- is how time travel "actually" works.  While time travel is impossible (currently, anyway), the picture from general relativity tells us that the only way for movement backwards in time to work is if it respects the geometric picture of spacetime.  The geometric picture of spacetime would make such things as changing the past, separate world lines, instantaneous "jumps", or stationary machines all impossible, and would instead imply a single, fixed, and deterministic sequence of events that may include reverse time travel, but is not changed by reverse time travel.

There are some fascinating stories to be told about the physical picture of time travel, to be sure.  Sadly, however, it is normally the literary picture that we see in films and books.  Hopefully this article has help clear up the differences, and explained the faults of the popular view.

NOTE:  In this post, I do not introduce reference frames, which is a point against me.  I intended to explain the geometry of spacetime, without dealing with the pesky issue of how things change depending on who is watching, so I left out that additional complication.  When I talk about four-velocities (as above), I am assuming all of this is measured by a stationary observer.  Just know that the simple picture I painted here is complicated by the fact that most observables in relativity change depending on who is doing the observation.

Sunday, March 9, 2014


I have become accustomed to using the word "anti-paradox" to describe a particular kind of time travel oddity.  I first encountered this word either on Wikipedia or TVTropes (sometimes it's hard to tell).  Now, despite my constant searching, not only can I not find the original article, but I cannot find any article anywhere on the internet using the word in the way I remembered seeing it.  The definition, as near as I can remember it, is as a follows:

An anti-paradox is a self-supporting, self-validating, tautological statement or situation.

It is a statement that is true precisely because it is true.

One of the examples that the article gave was the Robert A Heinlein book, "All You Zombies".   But that plotline is convoluted, and gross, so let me give a simpler example of a time travel anti-paradox.

A man is sitting in his room.  Suddenly, in a whir of sound and light, a metallic box appears in the room with him, and out steps an elderly gentleman.  The elderly fellow explains that this box is a time machine.  The elder has finished with time travel and wants to end his days as he remembers them before he left; and so, he is giving the machine to the younger man.  The younger man takes the machine and travels up and down the timeline, meeting famous people from history and exploring the technology of the future.  After decades of time travel adventures, saving the world from evil robot kings and stopping the Eiffel Tower from collapsing (he succeeds), the man becomes tired.  All this moving.  He wants to stop, and find some time, and just stay there.  But the only time he really remembers having any attachment to is the time before he left.  And so he returns to that day when he first got in the machine, and hands it off to his younger self, and stays there in his own time until such runs out.

This situation is an anti-paradox.  The man gets the time machine because he has the time machine because he gets the time machine because he has the time machine.  The attainment of the time machine is the cause of its own attainment.

This isn't contradictory, nor does it even offer an apparent contradiction.  It might be more correct to say that it makes too much sense.  The "problem" with it is that it doesn't have any exterior input.  No one builds the time machine.  The man has a time machine because he has a time machine.

I distinctly remember reading this situation as being called an anti-paradox.  Can anyone corroborate this?

If not, then let me propose the word for general use.  Anti-paradox: a self-supporting, self-validating tautology.

Friday, March 7, 2014

"Why Don't They Just Use the Time Turners to..."

The following video about sums up the way most people think of the Time Turners.

Why don't you just use them to travel back and kill Voldemort?  Or even Hitler?  As Snape says, you'd save countless innocent lives in the future.

I have never held back from criticizing Harry Potter.  Actually, I have kind of a hate-crush on the series.  Despite my sometimes overzealous criticism of everything about Harry Potter, the function of Time Turners as seen in Prisoner of Azkaban is the best depiction of time travel that I have yet encountered in any fictional medium.  It is one of the primary things in the series that I have to say, Rowling did perfectly.

Which is weird, because it's the most obvious point of criticism from everyone else.

Whenever you want to ask yourself the question, "Why don't they just go back in time and ...", stop, and ask yourself instead:

"Why don't they just not go back in time and rescue Buckbeak?"

Maybe that's too abstract at the moment.  Let me try something else.

You can go back and try to kill Voldemort.  Just get a Time Turner and spin it back a billion times.  Go ahead.

Most wizards are terrified of time travel.  The effects are supposed to make you go mad.  Wizards are cool with literal ghosts living in their rooms, and with dragons in their banks, and with actual fortune telling, and with lifting objects off the ground with magic, but they are absolutely superstitious about time travel.

Why are they superstitious about it?  Because weird, looping oddities occur that cause all of the wizards to experiment with time travel to go crazy.

from SMBC
Point is, most wizards avoid time travel.  Those that experiment with it are eccentric, even by wizard standards.  So it's possible that someone has actually used a Time Turner to kill Voldemort.

It just didn't work.

It's possible every time wizard to ever exist has gone back to kill Voldemort.  But it never works.

It will never work.

You can go back in time to kill Voldemort.  But you won't.

I know you won't, despite all your effort, because Voldemort doesn't die until the time of the story.

It's not like your free will is impeded.  You can try all you want and do whatever you want to kill Voldemort.  No mystic force is going to tug at your insides and prevent you from pulling the trigger.  If you think about it, there is nothing impeding my free will when it comes to wining the Olympics.  But I'm never going to.  And you're never going to kill Voldemort.

Its physically possible to kill him.  Your bullets won't bounce harmlessly off of his chest, or stop in mid-air right in front of him, or whatever.  Not like you'll get far enough to find out, though; if your bullets were about to hit Voldemort, then they would hit Voldemort, and he would die.  And Voldemort doesn't die at that time.  So your bullets won't get close enough to prove they could hit him.

You're not going to kill Voldemort, because you're just not going to.  There's no better explanation.  You just don't.

If you did, he wouldn't be the antagonist of the book series.  And yet there he is, Avada Kedavra-ing people all over the place.  So whatever plans you make to kill him in the past, they just aren't going to work (and may just exacerbate the problem), and you should move on and try something else.

Please note how the causality works here.  I am not saying
Voldemort is alive in 1994 ----> You can't kill him in the past.
I am instead saying
You don't kill Voldemort in the past ----> Voldemort is alive in 1994.

So back to the original question:
"Why don't they just not go back in time to save Buckbeack?"

Think of what it entails that they do go back to save Buckbeak.  During most of the events leading up to the Shrieking Shack, there are two copies of Harry and Hermione.  One copy follows the other, and the two interact to a substantial extent.  We don't see the second copy because they stay hidden, but we do observe their actions as unexplained anomalies that occur to the primary copy.

By the time the group gets to the hospital room and Dumbledore advises them to use the Time Turner to save Buckbeak and Sirius, those events have already happened.

This is important.  The copy of Harry and Hermione seen by the protagonists when they travel back in time is not some fictional, hypothetical alternate timeline Harry and Hermione.  They are seeing Harry and Hermione.  That is, they are seeing themselves.  Just a few hours ago.  We just read about these parts.  These are the Harry and Hermione.  There are no Timeline A and Timeline B versions of the two; there's just Harry and Hermione, and the things that they cause to occur have already, in fact, occurred.

We saw these events forward, then reversed, then saw them again from a different perspective.  We did not switch tapes.

And here we have a situation that speaks to the reverse of the usual time-travel paradoxes.  The most famous, namely the grandfather paradox, asks what would happen if you went back in time and killed your grandfather (or yourself), thus ending your existence before you can go back in time to end your existence.  Another, related paradox asks what happens if you go back in time to kill Hitler, or save the Titanic, or whatever; if you succeed, then you erase your motivation for time traveling in the first place, so you would never time travel, which means you would never make the change, which means you would time travel.

This time we ask a weirder question, sometimes called an anti-paradox: what if Harry doesn't travel back in time, and therefore doesn't save himself from the Dementors?

Clearly, by the time we get to the part where Dumbledore recommends time travel, Harry doesn't have a lot of options.  If he decides not to, then he must already be dead.  But Harry isn't dead.  So Harry is going to decide to travel back in time.

However, it isn't just limited to Harry.  If Harry decides not to travel back in time, then Buckbeak must be already dead.  But Buckbeak isn't dead.  So Harry is going to decide to travel back in time.

And it isn't limited to who's alive and who isn't.  If Harry decides not to travel back in time, then those rocks in Hagrid's garden don't get thrown.  But the rocks in Hagrid's garden do get thrown.  If Harry doesn't, the blades of grass he stepped on won't get pushed down in quite the same way, but they do get pushed down in quite that way.  If Harry doesn't, the molecules of water in the lake won't get stirred up like they do, but they do get stirred up like they do.  The oxygen molecules he breathed wouldn't have been turned in to carbon dioxide, but they were turned in to carbon dioxide.  The entropy of Scotland wouldn't have seen any contribution from Harry's metabolism, but entropy did increase from Harry's metabolism.  On and on.

Every single infinitesimal impact Harry had on the universe would not have occurred, and they all did occur.  Maybe humans didn't notice each little thing like entropy and O2 --> C02 reactions, but physics is notoriously unconcerned with human cognizance.  Those things did happen, and in fact we "saw" them happen on screen the first time through, before Harry and Hermione decide to go back in time.

So that's why they don't use the time turner to stop Voldemort.  Because everyone to use a time turner to stop him fails, has failed, and will fail.  It's a plan that never works and will never work.  There isn't even any reason to try, and anyone who has tried to do anything with time travel has gone insane or worse.

As to why our heros don't at least attempt it, maybe it's because if they did, then the story would be about their colossal failure and collapse into madness, which isn't the sort of thing that tends to make it in to books.  At least not children's books.

So, despite everything else I've said on the subject, when it comes to time travel, I really have to tip my hat to Rowling.  She did it very well.

Of course, the real question is why wizards would take literally the most dangerous item they know of -- so terrifying that people accustomed to conversing with ghosts leave them locked in a special, secret vault deep underground where no one can find them -- and lend it to a 13-year-old girl so she can get to her classes on time.  But that's another post.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Opposed Checks in D&D are the Same as Coin Flips

This is a lesson in statistics and probability, as applied to the popular Dungeons and Dragons role playing game.  I'm having trouble lately with the LaTeX embedder: if you see a lot of dollar signs and slashes, then check your plugins and permissions on your browser and allow MathJax to work, so you can see the equations better.

At least since version 3.0, the Dungeons and Dragons rule book has featured a rule of opposed checks.  These are supposed to represent, using dice, the opposition of two separate skills: so, your ability to Hide versus the orc's ability to Spot; your ability to tie a rope versus the orc's ability to escape from bonds.  You roll your skill, the orc rolls his skill, you apply modifiers, and the higher outcome wins.

Even before this, rolling dice was a common way to set the difficulty of something in old versions and in other non-d20 games.  How hard is the door to force?  You didn't think of it, now you're on the spot, so you roll a die to figure out how hard it is.  Then you tell the PCs to beat that number on their own roll.  Makes sense.

Doing checks this way is, from a probabilistic point of view, about as good as flipping a coin. The probability of the PC winning is slightly more than 50-50.  I'll prove it.

When you roll a die, a number comes up.  A random number, hopefully.  If the dice has $n$ sides, then this number is between $1$ and $n$.  It is customary to denote a random number with a capital letter: in this case, I'm going to call $X$ the result of rolling the die; $X=1, 2, 3,\ldots, n$, depending on what we roll.

If we consider some number between $1$ and $n$, say 6, then the probability that $X=6$ is, as we all know, $1/n.$  It is common to write this as $\Pr(X=6) = \frac{1}{n}.$  And, of course, it isn't just for $X=6$ that this is the case, but for any number $x$ between $1$ and $n$.  More generally, for any such $x$, we write $\Pr(X=x) = \frac{1}{n}.$

In our case, we are going to roll the same die twice.  This gives us two random numbers (the results of the two dice), which we will call $X_1$ and $X_2.$  We'll say that $X_1$ is the die we roll, and $X_2$ is the die that the PC rolls.  We want to know $\Pr(X_2 \geq X_1)$, that is, the probability that the second result is higher than the first or, more concretely, the probability that the PC wins his contest against the orc.

This could go a number of ways.  The GM might roll a 1, in which case the PC is guaranteed to win, or the GM might roll a $n$, in which case the PC has to also roll $n$ or lose, with other possibilities in between.  But we don't want to consider the probability of the PC winning given some particular roll from the GM, because that's trivial.  So what we want to do instead is consider all of these possibilities.

We look at
$$\Pr(X_2\geq X_1) = \sum_{x=1}^n \Pr(X_2 \geq x) \cdot \Pr(X_1=x),$$
which means that we consider the probability of the GM rolling some number $X_1=x$, then multiply by the probability of the PC winning given this roll, then consider this for all the possible $x$ the GM might roll and add these together.  That gives us the probability of the PC winning his roll, regardless of what the GM rolls.

Breaking this down, we find
$$\Pr(X_2\geq X_1) = \sum_{x=1}^n \sum_{y=x}^n \frac{1}{n} \frac{1}{n} = \frac{1}{n^2}\sum_{x=1}^n\sum_{y=x}^n 1 = \frac{1}{n^2}\sum_{x=1}^n (n-x+1).$$
Stopping for a second, for people less familiar with this stuff, the $\sum_{y=x}^n$ term means that we add up every value of $X_2$, starting at $x$, and ending at $n$.  In a concrete example, if we're rolling a 6-sided die, and the first roll is $X_1=3$, then we add up contributions from $y=3,4,5,6,$; that's $4 = 6-3+1$ terms we consider.  More generally, it is $n-x+1$ terms, which is why we wrote $(n-x+1)$ there.  Moving on,
$$\Pr(X_2\geq X_1) = \frac{1}{n^2} \left(\sum_{x=1}^n n - \sum_{x=1}^n x + \sum_{x=1}^n 1\right) = \frac{1}{n^2}\left(n^2 - \sum_{x=1}^n x + n\right).$$
The term $\sum_{x=1}^n x$ means the sum of the first $n$ numbers.  So,
$$\sum_{x=1}^n = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + \cdots + n.$$
Those who've had Calculus will be familiar with this, but other people maybe no so much.  There's a beautiful formula due to Gauss, arguably the first person to discover it, whose proof is even more beautiful.  Consider the following image:

This shows a bunch of stacks of squares, increasing from 1 to 2 to 3, on up to $n$.  The area of these squares is $\sum_{x=1}^n x.$  Now consider a second one of exactly the same size: the two interlock, forming a rectangle:

The width of the rectangle is $n$ and the height is $n+1$, so its areas is $n(n+1)$.  But the area of the rectangle is equal to twice the area of the stacked squares!  Therefore,
$$\sum_{x=1}^n x = \frac{n(n+1)}{2}.$$

So then, carrying on with our equation, we now have
$$\Pr(X_2 \geq X_1)  = \frac{1}{n^2}\left(n^2 - \frac{n(n+1)}{2} + n\right) = 1 - \frac{n+1}{2n} + \frac{1}{n} = \frac{2n - n - 1 + 2}{2n} = \frac{n+1}{2n},$$
which, as I said, is slightly better than 50% probability.  For a 6-sided die, it is $\frac{7}{12}.$  For a 20-sided die, it is $\frac{21}{40}$, which corresponds almost exactly to a DC of 10 (because a roll equal to 10 still counts as a success).  So rolling an opposed roll for the orc is the same as considering the orc's passive check.

For dice, the result is not quite $1/2$ because the rolls can only equal certain specific results (like 1, or 7), but in a general case, it is actually true that the probability of a second random number being larger than the first random number is exactly $1/2$: that is, $\Pr(X_2>X_1) = \frac{1}{2}.$  I'll prove it.

So, consider  $X_1, X_2$, which are still random numbers, but not necessarily from a die.  For instance, we might push blocks on ice, and $X_2$ and $X_1$ gives the distance the blocks travel before coming to rest.  Or throw darts at a wall and $X_2,X_1$ are the distances from a bullseye.  Or something.  It's also not necessarily that case that every possible value is equally likely.  For a fair die, every number has probability $1/n$ or coming up; for throwing darts at a bullseye, if we're any good, then we will be more likely to be near the bullseye.  Let $\Pr(X=x) = p(x)$, where $p(x)$ is just some function: give it a value $x$ and it gives you a probability $p$.  Here $p(x)$ is called the "probability distribution function".  For simplicity, we also consider $\Pr(X\leq x) = F(x)$, called the "cumulative density function".  This is the probability of $X$ being less than some value $x$; as we'll see, a separate symbol for this is really useful.

As before, we have
$$\Pr(X_2\geq X_1) = \int \Pr (X_2\geq x)\cdot\Pr(X_1=x)dx = \int (1-F(x))p(x) dx = \int p(x)dx - \int F(x)p(x)dx.$$
You may be wondering what the weird S is, the $\int$ thing.  That's an integral sign, and it basically just means "add up all the possible values of $x$."  It's different from the $\sum$ symbol in that $\sum$ considers only discrete values while $\int$ considers continuous spectra of values.  We have used here the fact that $1 = Pr(X\leq x) + Pr(X\geq x) = F(x) + \Pr(X\geq x)$ to express this in terms of $F$.

If we add up all the probabilities of things happening, we should get 100%; that is, $\int p(x)dx = 1.$  This makes sense; the probability that we roll a 1 or a 2 or a 3, etc, is 1.  So
$$\Pr(X_2\geq X_1) = 1 - \int F(x)p(x)dx.$$
To fully evaluate this, we can write it another way.  Think what happens if, instead of rolling for the orc first then making the PC roll higher than that, we have the PC roll, then roll for the orc and make sure the orc rolls lower.  It's the same thing in the end, but can be written as:
$$\Pr(X_2\geq X_1) = \int \Pr(X_2 = x) \Pr(X_1 \leq x) = \int p(x) F(x) dx.$$
Comparing these two,
$$\int p(x) F(x)dx = \Pr(X_2\geq X_1) = 1 - \int p(x) F(x)x,$$
which must mean $\Pr(X_2 \geq X_1)  = \int p(x)F(x)dx = 0.5.$

So, the long and short of it is, if we have two random numbers that we produce in the same way, one after the other, and we want to know the probability that the second is larger than the first, then this is 50%.  In terms of D&D, this means that if you generate the DC for a skill check by rolling a die, then have the PC roll to beat that die, then you may as well flip a coin to accomplish the same thing.  This also means you can fix the DC of the opposed rolls at 10, and just add the orc's bonuses to 10 to increase the DC; it achieves the exact same thing.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Speculating on Blindsprings

I recently stumbled on to a web comic called Blindsprings, after seeing a banner ad for it.  Let me take this time to recommend it to you.

Blindsprings is a comic that just went online back in October.  If you go to the website, you can see that not much has happened yet.  As such, it's hard to gauge just what the story is or where it's going.  So far though, surmising from the information available, I think this has the potential to be something really, truly great.  What is also exciting is being able to see the story develop from the beginning.

Plus, the artwork is beautiful.

this was the ad for it
Here's a non-spoilery description blurb of it:

The main heroine is a young girl named Tamaura.  She lives alone in the forest, where she attends to animals and plants trees and performs many other tasks for a shady group known as "the spirits".  It's a simple, idyllic kind of life.  One day she meets a young man named Harris, who has heard a fable of her and came to investigate the truth of it.  The two become friends, and after spending time with her, Harris decides to go off to a place called Kirkhall to study what is called Academic Magic.

The setting is not the standard "medieval" fantasy kind of setting, but something more like early Enlightenment era.  Really, not much of it has been revealed yet, so that's mostly a surmisation.  We are not even finished with the prologue.

Go read it.

After you've read it, come back here and let's talk about it.  There's not much of it (so far), so should be easy.

There are SPOILERS below.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

What is Spin? A Concrete Explanation.

To say that a particle has "spin 1/2" is to say that it must be rotated through 720 degrees before it can return to its original configuration.  This is not something normally witnessed in the world of classical mechanics, and so this aspect of quantum mechanics is often piled up with unhelpful metaphors and mysticism.

I wrote a post previously trying to point out that quantum mechanical spin is just a degree of freedom.  Spin tells you the components of a particle in a combination of two wave states with the same energy.  You can make pseudospins and isospins with any two such states, no matter what they are.  When you rotate the system, the components get mixed up -- just like angular momentum states.  You have to rotate the system by 720 degrees before the components get mixed up enough to be un-mixed up (i.e. back to there they were).  That's all it is.

What gives spin states this weird property is that the space of rotation is three dimensional, but the spin "vector" is only two-dimensional.  Rotations of typical vectors with three components (even if one of those components is zero) work just the way you'd think they should.  But, it's not completely surprising that 2D objects in 3D space don't rotate like 3D objects in 3D space.

To illustrate where spin comes from, and how it contrasts to orbital angular momentum, consider the case of rotation in 2 dimensions.  The best way to talk about rotations is to start at the unit circle.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Everything Cool is Impossible

Physics has known for a long time how to build a time machine.  The possibility in a real spacetime geometry was first noted by Van Stockum, but this possibility was only really first analyzed by Frank Tipler in the 70's.  All you need is a massive rotating cylinder.  And also it has to be infinitely long.

This illustrates how frame dragging
can lead to time travel 
Since then, at least a dozen other possibilities have been proposed for time travel to the past, and physicists have proven that these spacetime geometries result in what are called "Closed Timelike Curves" (CTCs), which are trajectories a massive object could follow to go back in to its own past.  We know that they would work within the theory of General Relativity.  But, they're all impossible.  They either require the universe to be rotating (it isn't), they require infinitely large systems (we can't make them), they require negative-mass matter (no such matter exists), or they require you perform your time travel within the interior event horizon of a Kerr black hole (which is fine, but then you can't leave).

This situation is worse than merely having a concept of physics that excludes time travel, or that merely says that time travel is impossible.  For if time travel was excluded by theory, then we could always say the theory was incomplete.  What we have instead is a system that fully allows time travel possibilities without prejudice, as long as we're able to break some other law of physics to get there.  It's not just the stubborn "no" of a parental figure; it's like having your parents describe step-by-step exactly what you can do to eat chocolate cake for breakfast, and one of those steps is "eat infinite broccoli".

Physics also knows how to effect FTL travel.  The speed of light puts a prohibitive barrier on
our ability to explore the stars, but a number of work-arounds have been proposed.  Technically, relativity only prohibits local FTL movement, but says nothing of global FTL travel.  So if you can distort space and time in just the right way, you can move however fast you want.  One of the more frequently explored proposals is wormhole travel.    Wormholes produce a kind of "short cut" in spacetime, and it is actually a Federal Law that when you want to discuss how wormholes work you must draw two dots on a sheet of paper, "A" and "B", draw the straight line connecting them, then fold your paper so "A" and "B" touch and jab a pencil through it.  While going along the line you draw may take billions of years, going through the wormhole may take minutes.
My lawyers also recommend I show you this diagram

Sadly, you can't make a wormhole.  And even if you made a wormhole, the throat collapses when you try to travel inside of it, so you can't even use the wormhole for travel anyway.

Another proposal is the Alcubierre warpdrive.  This contracts spacetime in the front and expands it in the back, producing what some call a "wave" of spacetime contraction that "tips over" the light cones inside the warp bubble.  Locally, you're moving slower than light, but globally you may be moving, in theory anyway, as fast as you want.

But you can't make the Alcubierre warp drive either.  If you took the mass of the universe and made it negative, the Alcubierre warp drive requires ten times that number in negative-mass matter to move a standard-sized spaceship.   To clarify, we haven't even found one single particle of negative-mass matter.

Science knows how to make a Bag of Holding, and can even make a Bag of Holding that slows down time (see chapter 3 here).  You can store a lifetime supply of hot pies and ice cream in the same box, and whenever you take them out the pie is still oven-fresh and the ice cream still ice cold, and so even twenty years later you can serve yourself delicious pie a la mode.  But, like so many awesome things, it requires either negative mass or impossible mater distributions and can't be made.

I just made a post about how the Bag of Holding (aka, Van den Broeck Bubble) can be exploited to, potentially, travel to parallel worlds (if any even exist).  This one is a lot more speculative, requiring ideas way beyond established science, but is at least partially based in what we already know about general relativity and curved-space geometry.  It isn't really scientific, but if we wanted to know if there were other universes, this has potential to actually find them.  But it also requires not only negative mass, but infinitely much of it.  So we won't ever be able to try.

Pictured: A guy wearing a green screen.
Not Pictured: An invisibility cloak 
Science has pretty recently discovered (less than ten years ago) how to make a literal cloak of invisibility.  It involves bending light in just the right way.  We know what that just-the-right-way way is, and we even know how to make materials that bend light in just that way.  Sadly, it only works for a single frequency (i.e. color) of light at a time.  There's no way to be completely invisible, because there don't exist materials with  the right optical properties naturally.  So you can be green-invisible, but you'll still be perfectly visible in red and blue.  I guess you'll just look slightly more purple?

I recently calculated (as part of my research) how to make a slightly different kind of cloak, namely a shadow cloak.  Also something you'd read about in fantasy books, the shadow cloak works on the same spacetime distortion principle as for a black hole, but now modified to work with optical materials (so not requiring it be made of actual black holes).  A perfect realization  would allow light to enter, but trap it there.  If you were wearing it, you would appear to be not just covered in a black garment, but actually swathed in shadows.  (Look at a black object, then look at an unlit hole; there's a big visual difference)  You'd also probably heat up a lot (since all the energy is trapped), which would make this kind of material perfect for solar panels, increasing their efficiency probably to near 100%.  But you can't make the shadow cloak, because it requires material parameters that are both infinite and negatively infinite.  Like with the invisibility cloak, you can only realize this (if at all) for a single color of light at a time.  Which vastly diminishes its coolness.

You can probably see where my knowledge tends to specialize, but physics knows a lot more cool things in the quantum domain, such as teleportation devices and solutions to the P=NP problem.  All of which, we know how it would work, and only minor technicalities render it impossible.  Things like wavefunction collapse, quantum decoherence, and the no-cloning theorem.

Any time there's something cool in physics, there's something else that renders it impossible.

Again, this isn't the situation of wanting to do something incredible and merely lacking a theoretical model to describe it.  Our formulations of physics account for it exactly.

It's just that all the cool stuff is impossible.

More and more, it just seems like the Universe comes equipped with fail-safes against our ever doing the cool things of science fiction.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

What Do Wizards Even Do?

The Malfoys are very rich.  The Weasleys are very poor.  However, they are not nearly as poor as the inbred and horrible Gaunts.


This is again part of the same basic problem with the series: Rowling never bothered to figure out her universe from the perspective of the characters who live in it.

How do wizards generate wealth?

As revealed in the books, there are really only so many things a wizard or witch can do professionally.  You can make wands.  You can make magical pranks.  You can manufacture magical candy.  You can sell books or robes.  You can teach at Hogwarts (and there's only a dozen positions there).  You can work for a news publication.  Or you can work for the Ministry of Magic.  That is the entire wizarding economy.

For instance, when the students begin taking their OWLS and deciding their classes for future employment, almost every single job opportunity considered is at the Ministry of Magic.  Harry becomes an auror, but what else was he going to become?  An accountant?

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Sailing Away to Narnia

I stumbled upon an article a few months ago that I've been meaning to blog for a while and never got around to.

The original article is by Chris van den Broeck, and deals with the subject of warp drives.

Yes, warp drives.  The Alcubierre warp drive engine is a device that stretches the spacetime around a spaceship, forming what is known in scientific literature as the "warp bubble" (really, that's what we call it).  Within the warp bubble, the ship is moving at "normal speeds", but outside of the bubble, the ship is moving faster than the speed of light.  The geometry for this is known and well understood, and the means of producing it are also fully understood.

You're probably wondering, if we know how to make a warp drive, why we haven't actually... you know... made a warp drive.  And that's a wonderful question.  We haven't made a warp drive because it requires a lot of stuff that probably doesn't exist, namely negative energy mass.  It requires a whole lot of it.  Like, ten times the positive mass of the entire universe in negative mass.

Van den Broeck proposed an idea to get around this, one elegant in both its simplicity and apparent absurdity.

Here's what you do: Take a bag.  Distort space, so that the inside of the bag is bigger than the outside of the bag.  The inside is big enough to hold a spaceship, and the outside if around the Planck length.  Now stick your spaceship inside of the bag, and then put a warp bubble around the bag.   It requires a lot less negative energy.  Voila!  Crisis averted.
Schematic from original article.
Region II is the bag.
Region I is where the ship is.
Region IV is the warp bubble
Now, warp drives are cool of themselves, but what I really want to talk about is the device that distorts space so the inside of the bag is bigger than the outside of the bag.  This is sometimes called a "van den Brocek bubble", or, somewhat more appropriately, a Bag of Holding.

We've gone from warp drives to the bag of holding, and we're not even done yet.  We're going all the way to Narnia.